Modern Earthquake Risk Assessment (ERA) methods usually require seismo-tectonic information for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) that may not be readily available in developing countries. To bypass this drawback, this paper presents a practical event-based PSHA method that uses instrumental seismicity, available historical seismicity, as well as limited information on geology and tectonic setting. Historical seismicity is integrated with instrumental seismicity to determine the long-term hazard. The tectonic setting is included by assigning seismic source zones associated with known major faults. Monte Carlo simulations are used to generate earthquake catalogues with randomized key hazard parameters. A case study region in Pakistan is selected to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. The results indicate that the proposed method produces seismic hazard maps consistent with previous studies, thus being suitable for generating such maps in regions where limited data are available. The PSHA procedure is developed as an integral part of an ERA framework named EQRAM. The framework is also used to determine seismic risk in terms of annual losses for the study region.
seismic hazard and risk analysis by robin k mcguire pdf download
Abstract:Determining the earthquake hazard of any settlement is one of the primary studies for reducing earthquake damage. Therefore, earthquake hazard maps used for this purpose must be renewed over time. Turkey Earthquake Hazard Map has been used instead of Turkey Earthquake Zones Map since 2019. A probabilistic seismic hazard was performed by using these last two maps and different attenuation relationships for Bitlis Province (Eastern Turkey) were located in the Lake Van Basin, which has a high seismic risk. The earthquake parameters were determined by considering all districts and neighborhoods in the province. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were carried out for these settlements using seismic sources and four different attenuation relationships. The obtained values are compared with the design spectrum stated in the last two earthquake maps. Significant differences exist between the design spectrum obtained according to the different exceedance probabilities. In this study, adaptive pushover analyses of sample-reinforced concrete buildings were performed using the design ground motion level. Structural analyses were carried out using three different design spectra, as given in the last two seismic design codes and the mean spectrum obtained from attenuation relationships. Different design spectra significantly change the target displacements predicted for the performance levels of the buildings.Keywords: Eastern Turkey; seismic risk; adaptive pushover; design spectra; Bitlis
Stafford, P. J., D. M. Boore, R. R. Youngs, and J. J. Bommer (2022). Host-region parameters for an adjustable model for crustalearthquakes to facilitate the implementation of the backbone approach to building ground-motion logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazardanalysis, Earthquake Spectra 38, 917--949 (2.8 Mb).[Version published in journal added 17 May 2022]
Budnitz, R. J., G. Apostolakis, D. M. Boore, L. S. Cluff, K. J. Coppersmith, C. A. Cornell, and P. A. Morris (1998). Use of technical expert panels: Applications to probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, Risk Analysis 18,463-469. (731 Kb)
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